In a few days' time the Amber Army from Cambridge United FC will gain our first experience of the Nationwide Conference / Blue Square Premier play-offs after three years of trying, and enjoy (hopefully it'll be enjoyable!) only our third appearance ever in a play-off competition.

While almost all U's fans are no doubt familiar with the events of 1989/90 - most who were there on May 26th 1990 can still picture Dion Dublin's salmon-like leap in the 77th minute to devastate a rugged Chesterfield side and seize an unlikely place in Division 3, after previously overcoming Maidstone United in extra time of the semi-final second leg.

And for those who were at Filbert Street or listening on the radio the play-offs of 1991/92 - where United suffered the heartbreak of a 5-0 thrashing by Leicester City in the second leg of the play-off semi-final, which was immediately followed by the break-up of our most successful side - will live on long in the memory for different, sadder reasons.

Still, there will be some who are not as knowledgeable about the brief history of the play-offs for the second annual opening into the Football League.

The second promotion place into the Football League was sanctioned for the first time for season 2002/03 after years of lobbying by the Conference clubs, and has since seen five teams triumph. Before that year only the champions had been granted promotion, and even this had regularly been prevented, in 1993/4, 1994/5 and 1995/6 when Kidderminster, Macclesfield and Stevenage were successively denied promotion due to supposedly inadequate facilities.

The second position was agreed to be filled from the start through play-offs between the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th placed teams. In the first year the order of playing the home and away legs was not fixed, but since then the higher placed team has had the supposed advantage of a home second leg.

'Supposed' advantage, because in fact six of the ten ties have been won by the team playing at home in the first leg. But that hides a more bizarre fact - of those six wins, five have been on penalties, meaning that the away team has triumphed in five of the six penalty shoot-outs that have determined who goes through to the final.

In contrast the team playing the home leg second has only triumphed four times, although three of those were from open play (the exception being our own Jimmy Quinn's Shrewsbury team beating Barnet on penalties at Gay Meadow in 2004.)

One has to hope the lads have practiced penalties ad nauseam, given there have been six semi-finals and one final (nearly half of all contests) that have been settled by spot kicks.

Part of the reason there have been so many semi-finals that have gone to penalties is that these matches are so tight. In contrast to play-offs in the Football League, where there have been quite a few thrashings over the years, every single play-off game to date (25 in number) has ended in a draw (9 in total) or a result by the odd goal (16 of which five were won through a solitary strike, seven were 2-1 wins and four were thrillers won by the odd goal in five).

Let us hope our striking success at gaining 2-1 victories this term continues through the play-offs...

There are certainly omens galore from each finishing position. As is widely known, the Conference runner-up has rarely triumphed in the play-offs: only Hereford in 2005/6 (the U's first season in the Conference) have triumphed after coming second, and in fact that is the only occasion the second-placed team have made it to the final. Morecambe (2002/3), Hereford twice (2003/4 and 2004/5) and Oxford (2006/7) have all fallen to the fifth placed teams - Dagenham, Aldershot, Stevenage and Exeter respectively.

But, in a perverse way, fifth place is even less lucky. All four 5th placed teams that have made the final have gone on to lose - Dagenham to Doncaster on golden goals, Aldershot to Shrewsbury (above) on penalties, Stevenage to Carlisle by a solitary goal in normal time, and Exeter to Morecambe by two goals to one.

Third place appears to be the best to finish - four of the five promoted clubs have been placed third at the close of the season, in fact the four winners listed above. Only in 2005/6 did the third placed team, Grays, lose a semi-final, to Halifax, 5-4 on aggregate. The Shaymen went on to lose a pulsating final 3-2 to a third-time-lucky Hereford Utd.

So fourth looks the worst place to finish - no wins at all and only one final, with Chester, Barnet, Aldershot and York all falling at the semi-final stage. But there is a twist here - both Chester and Barnet got over their play-off disappointment by romping to the following years' Championship, while Aldershot waited a couple of years to emulate them this time around.

So while fourth placed teams have a luckless track record in the play-offs themselves, only teams from that position have subsequently gone on to win the Championship, taking three of the five places on offer.

Initially the play-offs seemed to favour ex-league clubs, with Doncaster, Shrewsbury, Carlisle and Hereford successful (the middle two at the first time of asking). Morecambe's win last year broke that run, with the seaside team becoming the first historically non-league club to gain promotion in this way.

In fact Morecambe are one of the two more prolific play-off participants, having been losing semi-finalists in 2002/3 and 2005/6 before their triumph last year. Hereford also lost two semi-finals 2003/4 and 2004/5 before wining in 2005/6 and share Morecambe's record of three appearances in the play-offs. Aldershot have appeared twice, losing to Shrewsbury in the final on penalties in 2003/4 before losing to Carlisle in the semi-final the next season, again on penalties; no wonder the Shots were so keen to avoid the play-off lottery and go up as champions!

No other club has appeared more than once in the play-offs, although Exeter will match Aldershot's pair of appearances (and hopefully their pair of failures) next month.

Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future performance, and the Mighty U's go into the play-offs in good form and fine spirits... so let battle commence!

Nick Pomery

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