The 2004/05 campaign is almost upon us; time then to rely on the usual mix of wild guesswork and idle speculation as we preview the season.
The close season is always a period marked by players coming and going, but this summer has seen an extraordinary number moving to pastures new. Maybe managers have been confused by the League re-branding and are all preparing for a season in a higher division.
So who's destined for promotion, who will have to wait until the end of May before they can go on holiday and who will be donning the sackcloth and ashes of relegation?
Boston United: The coming season will see the Pilgrims coached by a larger than life character with more a whiff of controversy in his past. And Paul Gascoigne is expected to be at York Street too, helping Steve Evans build on last season's 11th place. Verdict: Boston finished last season strongly and could be an outside bet for a play-off place if they can do something about their dismal away form.
U's Fans at Boston Last Season
Bristol Rovers: Last season's 15th place masked another year of underachievement for the Pirates. This year they will be lead by Ian Atkins, who controversially walked out on Oxford towards the end of the last campaign, so don't expect them to be leading the goalscoring stakes. With eleven men out and eight new faces, it might take Atkins' side a while to gel. Verdict: Another year in mid-table.
Bury: They may be beset by financial problems, but the one thing you can be certain of from Bury is a no-nonsense approach that will stand them in good stead in this division. Graham Barrow has changed his squad less than many in the division and, with the return of Jon Newby from Huddersfield, has added a quality striker to go with a dogged defence. Verdict: Hard to beat, but may not quite be inventive enough to do more than flirt with post season action.
Cambridge United: Herve Renard has had a busy summer rebuilding what was a leaky defence, and the signings of Abdou El Kholti and Igor Latte-Yedo look increasingly astute. The season-long absence of Louis-Georges Mongin will cause a problem on the left and Renard has already gone on record to say that promotion is impossible this season. Verdict: Never argue with the manager!
Cheltenham Town: The Robbins meandered around mid-table for the bulk of last term before finally settling on a finish one place below the U's. With shrewd boss John Ward at the helm and new signings Steve Guinan (who found the goal trail with Hereford last season) and JJ Meligan in the ranks, this year could be different. Verdict: Play-offs
Chester City: Chester ran away with the Conference last season. This year we'll find out whether that said more about Chester the standard of the Conference. Nine and nine out suggests manager Mark Wright hopes the former is the case, but fears it could be the latter. Verdict: Might just have the momentum to skip straight through the division.
Danny Webb On Target At Darlington Last Season
Darlington: Last season saw the Quakers enjoying home field advantage but getting travel sick at the first sight of a coach. Never afraid to concede goals - as we highlighted there last season - Darlo pulled themselves out of trouble after a dire start to the last campaign. Much will depend on whether a striker will step forward to don the mantle of the talismanic Barry Conlon. Verdict: There may be trouble ahead.
Grimsby Town: A poor run saw them tilt into the relegated zone for the second consecutive season, and manager Russell Slade has brought in nine new faces - including the versatile Terry Fleming - in an attempt to halt the slide, while half a dozen have departed. Momentum is key for the Mariners, and much will depend on whether they can get points on the board early doors. Verdict: If they get off to a good start post season action looks plausible.
Kidderminster Harriers: Another team who finished last season poorly, and Jan Molby has reacted by shouting 'all change' at Aggborough. Eight in and twelve out could see the Harriers spending the first half of the season getting to know their new team mates. Verdict: Will hope for mid-table respectability.
Leyton Orient: Last season was trying one for Martin Ling's side as the slumped to the lowest ever League finish. With two sides of the ground shut for redevelopment, much could depend on the goals of former Oxford striker Lee Steele. Verdict: Another season of woe for the O's.
John Ruddy Makes That Save At Orient
Lincoln City: What Lincoln don't know about losing in the play-offs simply isn't worth knowing. Mansfield had the better of them last season a year on from Bournemouth dealing the bitter blow over two legs. Everyone knows what to expect from Keith Alexander's men, but the trouble is not many have found a way to combat it. Verdict: Same old, same old - once more unto the play-offs dear friends.
Macclesfield Town: 20th place last season was a decent achievement given Brian Horton's meagre budget, and Horton's past successes on a shoestring suggest that the relegation zone shouldn't worry them this year. The signing of Wayne Rooney's cousin will probably not propel them into the role of contenders though. Verdict: Mid-table anonymity.
Mansfield Town: Keith Curle's men slipped away from the automatic promotion places at the end of last season, and their misery was compounded when they lost to Huddersfield on penalties at the Millennium Stadium. Curle's squad has undergone renovation in the summer but crucially midfield play-maker and set piece wizard Liam Lawrence has packed up and moved to Sunderland. Verdict: Upper half, but the Stags won't be in the hunt this time.
Northampton Town: The Cobblers recovered from a poor start to clinch a play-off place last season and manager Colin Calderwood has further strengthened his side in the summer with, among others, the signing of striker Scott McGleish and defenders Tommy Jaszczun and Fred Murray. Their arrival, together with the financial clout to further add to the squad if required, should be enough to avoid the play-off lottery this time around. Verdict: It pains me to say so, but promotion looks on the cards.
U's Fans Enjoying Another Win At Sixfields
Notts County: The 'pies spent last season on a financial knife-edge and all bar a couple of weeks bouncing around the relegation zone. Although manager Gary Mills has managed to bring in six new faces, a dozen have left Meadow Lane. The lack of resources will undermine an immediate return. Verdict: Mid-table at best.
Oxford United: Half the population of Oxfordshire seems to have been on the move as Graham Rix reacted to the late slump that denied his team a place in the play-offs by completely changing the squad, with eleven players leaving and twelve arriving. The arrival of David Woozley from Torquay and Tommy Mooney from Swindon look interesting, but such wholesale changes are always a gamble and it will be intreguing to see how quickly the new squad settles. Verdict: Close, but no cigar for Oxford.
Rochdale: 'Dale have been taking full advantage of the various League re-brandings to quietly get themselves promoted from Division Four to League Two without actually moving! A 21st placed finish last season leaves them preparing for a 30th consecutive campaign in the basement, and the only doubt as to whether there's a 31st due up next is over the number of goals they can eke out. Verdict: Nervous times ahead.
Rushden & Diamonds: A disastrous run of just one point from their final nine matches saw Rushden suffer their first ever relegation, and manager Ernie Tippett has reacted by freshening up the squad with nine in and eight out. Goal scoring was the biggest problem last season with none hitting the net in the last five games. Whether new strikers Alex Hay and Gareth Seddon from Tranmere and Bury respectively are the solution will be key to Rushden's season. Verdict: Choppy waters ahead.
Scunthorpe United: Brian Laws' side were only saved from relegation last season by Carlisle's dreadful start and York's woeful finish. With the squad little changed over the summer, Laws will have his work cut out sustaining much more than a mid-table finish. Verdict: Lower mid-table.
Ashley Nicholls Celebrates His Goal Against Scunthorpe Last Season
Shrewsbury Town: The Shrews buried the memories of their dramatic relegation from the League with an even more dramatic return via a series of penalty shoot outs in the play-offs. The squad looks settled and, with a good start, Shrewsbury could follow Doncaster's example of backing up a play-off win with an automatic promotion. Verdict: Promotion.
Southend United: Southend's season was odd to say the least last time round. Awful until mid-February, they suddenly put a run together to guarantee safety, before taking their foot off the gas again for a 17th placed finish. Eight have come in and twelve out over the summer, and the key with be whether Lawrie Dudfield can pick up carry the weight of the front line in place of the departed Leons - Constantine and Cort. Verdict: Not enough goal power; the Conference beckons.
Swansea City: After a great start, Swansea slipped from the pace of the winter period before ending in a comfortable tenth place. Boss Kenny Jackett has tweaked his squad with the arrival of former U's defender Kevin Austin and ex-Luton striker Adrian Forbes, but the loss of a number of experienced players looks to have weakened their resources. Swansea's home form is usually enough to keep them in with a shout, and as this is their last season at the Vetch, they will be looking to go out in style. Verdict: Might just scrape into the play-offs if they can pick up enough points on their travels.
Wycombe Wanderers: Last season was a nightmare for the Chairboys, and rookie manager Tony Adams has reacted to last season's 24th place with wholesale changes to his squad. Twelve have gone with seven arriving, and a clever piece of dealing has seen aging playmaker Darren Currie replaced by the industrious Joe Burnell from Bristol City. Burnell's prompting should stabilise the ship, but a quick return looks unlikely. Verdict: just missing out on the play-offs.
Yeovil Town: Gary Johnson's men enjoyed a fine first season in the League and were unfortunate to miss the play-offs on goal difference. The signing of former Everton and Grimsby striker Phil Jeavons looks to be an astute one and should ensure that the Glovers second season in the League is even better than their first. Verdict: Probably not a good idea for Yeovil fans to book a holiday in May - the play-offs await.
Previous features:
Redevelopment - The Way Forward (June 2004)
End of Term Report 2003/04 (May 2004)
Randall Butt - The End of an Era (May 2004)
Gary Harwood's New Year Statement (January 2004)
'Bridge The Gap' - The Background (December 2003)
Abbey Stadium Plans Unveiled (October 2003)
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